Quora:
I will try to answer this question without taking sides or passing moral
judgement. The reason for China’s increasing intolerance of Taiwan is that China has given up peaceful reunification and is preparing to force the subject. China tends to have long views and would leave the reunification issue to future generations as long as the time is on its side. China’s national strength continues to grow and according to the latest IMF’s forecast, China’s GDP will surpass the US in 2028–2029. Since the US is the biggest hurdle for Taiwan reunification, why rush it now instead of waiting till the US is unable to do much harm?
Reasons for Recent Hostility Escalations
US Containment Strategies - With the US’s decision to sanction Huawei and SMIC, it is increasingly clear that US is adopting containment strategies with China. In this case, US started a tech cold war to suppress China’s high-tech industry. The structural reason behind this containment is China challenging US for the number one position. This is what’s called Thucydides’ Trap as described by former Harvard dean Allison Graham in his book ‘Destined for War’. Graham analyzes the last 500 years for scenarios where a rising power (China) challenged the dominant power (US). 12 out 16 such scenarios became wars.
On the other hand, China has 4 times the population of US. If China grows its per capita income over 1/4 of US level, then China will surpass US’s GDP and jeopardize US dollars hegemony. While China Foreign Minister Wang Yi reassures that China has no intention to replace the US, it is difficult to ease the US’s suspicion. It is also easy for politicians to bad mouth China for political gains. So it is unlikely for the US to stay idle without taking action. If US should continue containment strategies, Huawei and SMIC sanctions are just the beginning.
In the past, the US has not wanted Taiwan to stir up trouble while privately wanting Taiwan to stay independent from China. US walked a fine line by selling only defense weapons to Taiwan and maintain Taiwan’s relationship at a non-official level.
In the last one year, this is changed with increasing arms sales to Taiwan including offense weapons. US frequently sends high level government officials to visit Taiwan which violets the non-official relationship policy. It appears that the US want to stir up conflicts to cause a proxy war between China and Taiwan. This strategy of using Taiwan as a pawn to checkmate China was pushed by hardliners in Trump’s administration.
It is very unlikely for a direct hot war between US and China for it is just way too dangerous for two nuclear superpowers. But US can sell arms or share intelligence with Taiwan. As long as the offense weapons that fall on China soil are not launched by US, there is not much China can do to US. It is also likely that the US can use this opportunity to impose further sanctions on China to suppress its rise.
On the other hand, China concluded that if the US should continue this path of containment strategies, China does not really have much to lose and is better off to resolve the reunification issue now than wait. So, China decided to call US’s bluff for the following reasons:
(1) The chokehold US places on China’s high-tech sector is through the semiconductor ban. The World’s number one semiconductor maker is TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp) in Taiwan and makes up 55% of the worldwide production. Only TSMC has the most advanced 5nm process that can make Apple’s iPhone 12 and Huawei’s Kirin CPU. TSMC can no longer make Kirin CPU for Huawei due to the US’s ban. But if Taiwan is in the hands of China, China can not only resolve the semiconductor chokehold, it can also use TSMC to force the US to stop any further hostilities.
(2) Ironically, Trump is the most peaceful US president in the last few decades with the only aggression committed being killing Iran general Soleimani. He often talks about “getting our boys home” at the expense of losing US presence worldwide. Does he have the stomach for a war with China? If direct hot war is too dangerous and not possible, how bad can it get with the cold war strategies the US is already placing upon China?
Taiwan Growing Independent Sentiment - In the last Taiwanese presidential election - pro-independent president Tsai Ing-wen won by a landslide. Most of the young people in Taiwan are naturally pro-independent (like Hong Kong.) As time goes on, the pro-independent sentiment will just become stronger.
In 1949, after KMT party lost the civil war to communists in mainland China, it was able to survive in Taiwan because communists did not have navy and air force to invade. Over these years, Taiwan still calls itself “Republic of China” (ROC) per its constitution while China calls itself “People Republic of China” (PROC or PRC.) The basis for cross-strait relationship is based on the ‘92 consensus (negotiated in 1992 between communist party and KMT) which means both Taiwan and China recognize there is only one China, but the content of that China has different interpretation by each side. So what China is saying is, as long as Taiwan continues its anti-independent position and recognizes itself as “Republic of China”, China can wait. The ruling DPP party does not recognize the ‘92 consensus. The current KMT party that used to support the ‘92 consensus has found itself in an awkward position to stay relevant with increasing pro-independent sentiments in Taiwan. Now KMT is having internal discussions and may drift away from the ‘92 consensus.
Therefore, time is not in China’s favor for a peaceful reunification with Taiwanese growing independent sentiment.
Xi Get Rid of Term Limit - It is controversial (at least internationally) for Xi to get rid of the term limit because that is a safety valve. Deng set up the term limit to prevent strong men like Mao to ever come back to damage China’s future. Absolute power can be dangerous to a society. It is said that Xi got rid of term limit because he feels a sense of historical obligations to resolve two major issues for China - China’s Rise and Taiwan Reunification. There is a limited amount of time, maybe by 2033 when Xi is 80 years old and end of his 4th term? Instead of passing the reunification task to the next leader like his predecessors, he now has the burden of resolving this issue while he is in charge. Otherwise he can’t justify staying more than 2 terms and history will judge him as power hungry. Since peaceful reunification is no longer realistic, the only other option is by force or coercion. But when?
Signs That China Has Given up Peaceful Reunification
Hong Kong Security Law - After Hong Kong’s return to China in 1997, according to the Basic Law (Hong Kong’s constitution), Hong Kong should have passed the “Security Law” to counter separatism on its own. Since it was opposed by the local Hongkongers, there was no security law. This is the reason why those Hong Kong young people could wave the Hong Kong independent flag last year without being prosecuted. China has adopted a non-interference policy with Hong Kong in the past 23 years. In many ways, China has tried to help Hong Kong prosper. Part of the reason is China want to make Hong Kong a successful model of “One Country Two Systems” and sell it to Taiwan for eventually peaceful reunification. The fact that China bypassed Hong Kong’s local legislation to pass the Security Law by the central government is a big turn-off for Taiwanese. Passing the security law implies China had realized peaceful reunification with Taiwan is no longer possible.
Taiwan AIDZ Incursions - The frequent China military planes flying over the central line of Taiwan strait is an expression of China’s displeasure of US high level officials visits to Taiwan. But it also means China does not care about Taiwanese’s feeling anymore.
Arrest Taiwanese Spies - The recent arrest of hundreds of so called “Taiwanese spies” in China is a clear indication that China does not care about Taiwanese’s feelings anymore. From all the evidence, clearly these are not “professional spies”, but rather pro-independent sympathizers who try to take pictures at sensitive locations in China. These “Taiwanese spies” repent on CCTV (in exchange for leniency). The Chinese government even specifically asked people to watch as an important political lesson. It raised hostilities on both sides, even among the pro-unification Taiwanese. This is either an ill-advised move if peaceful reunification is still in Xi’s mind, or if there’s something big going to happen. The CCTV broadcasts are for internal consumption. I have seen countries doing this type of propaganda to unify people’s thoughts before taking on important national efforts. It looks like a sign of preparing for war.
Possible Outcomes of Increasing Hostility
Taiwan Back Down - Indeed, Taiwan got China’s hostile messages and president Tsai Ing-Wen gave a speech during the Double Ten (October 10, 2020) national independence holiday, expressing that Taiwan is willing for peaceful dialogue with China on an equal-basis ground. But clearly China did not accept that message and proceeded with the CCTV “Taiwanese Spies” broadcast on October 12, 2020.
It is interesting to note that there is a recent change of US attitude toward Taiwan and China. Instead of continuing to stir up a proxy war, US has become rather restrained with its messages. Even more surprising is that Taiwanese pro-independent hardliner, foreign minister Joseph Wu announced recently that “Taiwan is not seeking formal diplomatic tie with US and does not expect US to defend Taiwan if China should invade.” There is only one logical explanation to this 180-degree change. Taiwan was forced by US government to say so to de-escalate the tension.
Escalation to War - If the increased hostilities from China cause Taiwan’s hostile actions in return, the spiral of these actions could lead to war, and China is ready for reunification now. Xi is one of the most powerful leaders in the Chinese communist party’s history. He feels that he has enough political clout to manage any fallouts from this war. Ironically, China can resolve the high-tech chokehold US places on China with the reunification. TSMC can be the best weapon for China to counter US after. So, I think Xi would rather Taiwan escalate the tension in return.
Alternatively, China can use the threat of reunification war to force US to lift the semiconductor ban on China’s high-tech.
Conclusions
I think Xi calculated the situation carefully. Either outcome is good for China. That’s the reason you see US and Taiwan backing down now. Taiwanese feeling is hurt. But Xi let go that consideration in the big picture.
During the 70th year of China entering Korean war ceremony on October 23, 2020 at Beijing’s People’s Great Hall, Xi made the speech - ‘The Chinese people understood that you must use the language that invaders can understand – to fight war with war and stop an invasion with force, earning peace and security through victory.’ This is the strongest language as head of China against US in the last five decades. It is a signal to US not to interfere with China’s dealing on Taiwan affairs. It appears Taiwan’s backing down is not enough to cool the situation.
There is a timing to everything. Several factors make the current situation rather dangerous: (1) The offense weapons US recently announced won’t be delivered to Taiwan for another two years. More offense weapons will be sold to Taiwan in the future; (2) Taiwan’s current military readiness is at its lowest point in history. With rising cross straight tensions, Taiwan is in the process of raising its reserve capability; (3) China need to resolve US semiconductor chokehold that forbidden Taiwan to make chips for China; (4) If Biden should win which is likely, with a pacifism US President in charge for the last two months and may even dispute the election result to cause power vacuum. If Trump lose by a small margin, the possible fights on mail-in ballots will dominate the news headlines and distract public from conflicts at Taiwan Strait. These make the day after election (November 4, 2020) to US President Inauguration (January 20, 2021) the best window of opportunity for China.
Counter to to above timing suggestion, Taiwan retired 3-stars general Ji Linlian recently expressed in an interview that this window of time is very unsuitable for amphibious landing. Whether China needs amphibious landing to achieve its goal is a different question. It is believed that China has the ability to destroy Taiwan’s missile defense, offense and the air force. China could then proceed with naval blockade to force Taiwan to the negotiation table. The downside of this strategy is to prolong the reunification process and create uncertainties. But it will minimize damages on both sides. If China sticks to its words of ‘One Country Two Systems’ for Taiwan, it might as well let Taiwan negotiate the deal for the stability of long-terms governing.
We should watch carefully whether China continues increasing its hostility or de-escalates as a sign whether the reunification war will break out in the near future.